Comments on: The Pinnacle of Human Civilisation http://kybernetikos.com/2007/09/17/the-pinnacle-of-human-civilisation/ Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:04:07 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: kyb http://kybernetikos.com/2007/09/17/the-pinnacle-of-human-civilisation/#comment-3449 Sat, 22 Sep 2007 22:38:31 +0000 http://kybernetikos.com/2007/09/17/the-pinnacle-of-human-civilisation/#comment-3449 Good quote, but Mr Keynes had obviously never read his Asimov. The prospect of a European war is uncertain because of all the factors we know are important but can't measure, all the factors we don't know about but are important, and the relationship of all the factors. That's exactly the same reason roulette is uncertain. Good quote, but Mr Keynes had obviously never read his Asimov.

The prospect of a European war is uncertain because of all the factors we know are important but can’t measure, all the factors we don’t know about but are important, and the relationship of all the factors. That’s exactly the same reason roulette is uncertain.

]]> by: Andrew http://kybernetikos.com/2007/09/17/the-pinnacle-of-human-civilisation/#comment-3447 Sat, 22 Sep 2007 16:00:17 +0000 http://kybernetikos.com/2007/09/17/the-pinnacle-of-human-civilisation/#comment-3447 "By `uncertain' knowledge, let me explain, I do not mean merely to distinguish what is known for certain from what is only probable. The game of roulette is not subject, in this sense, to uncertainty...The sense in which I am using the term is that in which the prospect of a European war is uncertain, or the price of copper and the rate of interest twenty years hence...About these matters there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know." (J.M. Keynes, 1937) “By `uncertain’ knowledge, let me explain, I do not mean merely to distinguish what is known for certain from what is only probable. The game of roulette is not subject, in this sense, to uncertainty…The sense in which I am using the term is that in which the prospect of a European war is uncertain, or the price of copper and the rate of interest twenty years hence…About these matters there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know.” (J.M. Keynes, 1937)

]]> by: kyb http://kybernetikos.com/2007/09/17/the-pinnacle-of-human-civilisation/#comment-3395 Tue, 18 Sep 2007 20:11:02 +0000 http://kybernetikos.com/2007/09/17/the-pinnacle-of-human-civilisation/#comment-3395 Good point, I'd not factored in reincarnation. Good point, I’d not factored in reincarnation.

]]> by: woodly http://kybernetikos.com/2007/09/17/the-pinnacle-of-human-civilisation/#comment-3394 Tue, 18 Sep 2007 19:48:50 +0000 http://kybernetikos.com/2007/09/17/the-pinnacle-of-human-civilisation/#comment-3394 You are just counting numbers of lifes. Certainly lifetimes have expanded in human history so far (well at least for some fraction of the world population). The whole arguments breaks down if you assume that people are reborn :-) You are just counting numbers of lifes. Certainly lifetimes have expanded in human history so far (well at least for some fraction of the world population).
The whole arguments breaks down if you assume that people are reborn :-)

]]> by: Rosie http://kybernetikos.com/2007/09/17/the-pinnacle-of-human-civilisation/#comment-3368 Mon, 17 Sep 2007 13:08:34 +0000 http://kybernetikos.com/2007/09/17/the-pinnacle-of-human-civilisation/#comment-3368 Can I be in the middle?! Can I be in the middle?!

]]> by: kyb http://kybernetikos.com/2007/09/17/the-pinnacle-of-human-civilisation/#comment-3367 Mon, 17 Sep 2007 12:43:40 +0000 http://kybernetikos.com/2007/09/17/the-pinnacle-of-human-civilisation/#comment-3367 Psym: Thanks for commenting :-) Yes, the probability of you being alive here and now is exactly 1, we'll take it as a given. However, what is the probability of a future where the human race expands its population enormously compared to todays number given that you are alive here and now? Much smaller than the probability that the future holds disaster for the human race given that you're alive now. In fact, it's your fault. It's quite true that the first humans could have done this exact same calculation and reached the same conclusions, and been wrong. But just imagine how few of them there would have been doing that calculation and getting it wrong compared to the huge number of people who do it and get it right. Which group do you think you're more likely to be in? Psym: Thanks for commenting :-)

Yes, the probability of you being alive here and now is exactly 1, we’ll take it as a given. However, what is the probability of a future where the human race expands its population enormously compared to todays number given that you are alive here and now? Much smaller than the probability that the future holds disaster for the human race given that you’re alive now. In fact, it’s your fault.

It’s quite true that the first humans could have done this exact same calculation and reached the same conclusions, and been wrong. But just imagine how few of them there would have been doing that calculation and getting it wrong compared to the huge number of people who do it and get it right. Which group do you think you’re more likely to be in?

]]> by: Psym http://kybernetikos.com/2007/09/17/the-pinnacle-of-human-civilisation/#comment-3366 Mon, 17 Sep 2007 08:00:39 +0000 http://kybernetikos.com/2007/09/17/the-pinnacle-of-human-civilisation/#comment-3366 Well, since I've been told to comment ... Isn't the probability of me being alive here and now exactly 1, since I'm here typing? You could use the same argument at any point in history and then find that every age was an astonishingly unlikely freak of statistics. Which is probably true, and maybe that's your point... Well, since I’ve been told to comment …

Isn’t the probability of me being alive here and now exactly 1, since I’m here typing? You could use the same argument at any point in history and then find that every age was an astonishingly unlikely freak of statistics. Which is probably true, and maybe that’s your point…

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